Nover’s View: NFL Free Sunday Play Plus Prop

On December 31, 2023, in Free Picks, NFL, by Stephen

Saints at Buccaneers Over 42

I’ve never liked Baker Mayfield. He’s arrogant and has been a major disappointment in the NFL.

Until now.

I must credit Mayfield for playing his best football since entering the NFL six seasons ago as the No. 1 overall draft pick. During the last three weeks, Mayfield has completed 67.4 percent of his throws while accounting for nine touchdowns and no interceptions. Going by fantasy football measures, he’s been the second-best quarterback during this span behind Lamar Jackson.

Expect Mayfield to keep producing. The Saints defense is down from previous seasons. New Orleans has mediocre statistics despite playing the easiest schedule. The Saints are in the bottom-five in sacks and are without their top cornerback, Marshon Lattimore. That should ensure strong performances from Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.

Tampa Bay is averaging 31 points in its last three games going against the Falcons, Packers and Jaguars. The Buccaneers are averaging 393.5 yards in their last two games. Their offense is clicking. Rachaad White has emerged as a force in his second season. The Saints faced two good offenses in their last four games – the Rams and Lions. They surrendered 33 points to the Lions and 30 to the Rams.

I haven’t been a big Derek Carr fan either. But he also should fare well in this matchup. The Buccaneers are down defensively from previous seasons. They rank last in pass defense and won’t have cornerback Carlton Davis, who is out with a concussion.

Carr has weapons to go after the Buccaneers with Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara, underrated Rashid Shaheed and a healthy-again Tayson Hill.

This is a battle for first place in the NFC South Division so both teams figure to be pulling out all the stops, not afraid to take chances.

Speaking of Shaheed, he’s a player I targeted for a prop bet. I have Shaheed Over 37 1/2 receiving yards. Bookmakers know how good Olave is. Shaheed is below the radar. The Saints finally gave Shaheed heavy minutes against the Rams last week. He played on 82 percent of the Saints’ offensive snaps and was targeted nine times, catching five passes for 70 yards. Shaheed has five receptions of 40 or more yards, which is the most in the league. Now he’s going against a weaker secondary than the Rams.

I am 13-6-1 on my NFL premium/free plays during the past three plus weeks and am beating the NFL for the 26th time in 31 years. I have five premium NFL plays going Sunday headed by my AFC Game of the Year. If you are interested in my sports service, please email me at, or message me via X.

As always, best of luck and no bad beats!


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *