Nover’s View: Commanders-Colts Free Play

On October 30, 2022, in Free Picks, NFL, by Stephen

Colts minus $1.50 (money line) hosting Commanders

The Sam Ehlinger era is about to begin in Indianapolis. But before delving into that let’s discuss the Commanders. It’s time to sell high on them after consecutive victories.

Does anybody think the Commanders are any good? I sure don’t. They average fewer than 18 points and are last in the NFL with only two takeaways. They have the most toxic owner in the NFL if not all of sports.

The Commanders were extremely fortunate to beat the Bears two weeks ago being held to 214 total yards of offense and outgained by 177 yards. They caught a break then last week against the stumbling Packers on a controversial ticky-tack defensive holding call on cornerback Eric Stokes that negated a Green Bay defensive touchdown. That turned the momentum completely around. I have no doubt the Packers would have won if that penalty had not been called.

Washington’s defense is average, still missing its best player, Chase Young. The offense is below par with a shaky offensive line, back-up Taylor Heinicke at quarterback and lacking any above average skill position talent except wide receiver Terry McLaurin, who is good but not elite. Heinicke has moxie, but he’s saddled with extreme physical limitations due to his short size and lack of arm strength.

The Colts have the best player on both sides of the ball with Jonathan Taylor, now fully healthy, and three-time All-Pro linebacker Shaquille Leonard, who is set to play for just the second time this season. He’s a difference-maker for Indianapolis that isn’t reflected in this betting line like it should.

Now we come to Ehlinger – the wild card. What to expect? Frank Reich knows the quarterback position. He’s no dummy. Matt Ryan wasn’t the right fit. The Colts were passing way too much, throwing 297 times, third-most in the NFL. The result was the 37-year-old Ryan getting exposed to the tune of being sacked 24 times and committing 12 turnovers.

Ehlinger was outstanding during preseason, completing 24-of-29 passes for 290 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions. He had a 45-yard touchdown run. Could you imagine Ryan ever rumbling 45 yards for a touchdown? This wasn’t that big of a fluke either. Ehlinger rushed for 33 touchdowns during his college career at Texas.

At the very least now, the Colts have mobility at quarterback. Word is that Ehlinger has improved his accuracy and arm strength. The Commanders have limited film on Ehlinger. So the Colts have the element of surprise going. Washington has just two interceptions and has surrendered an NFC-high 14 touchdown passes. Ehlinger has a superstar runner in Taylor to rely on and take the pressure off.

The Colts held the Titans to 254 yards last week in a 19-10 loss. The Colts turned the ball over three times, including Ryan throwing a pick-six. That did them in. Indy has a history of bouncing back from a point spread perspective under Reich covering eight of the last 10 times following an ATS loss.

I see the quarterback switch giving the Colts a huge dose of energy. The timing of playing at home in Ehlinger’s first start is important, too.

Usually playing the money line with this high of juice is beyond my tolerance level. But I’m going to make an exception here because if the Colts were to win by just one or two points and I had not played them on the money line, it would be a serious blow to my mental health.

I am 33-16-1 on my NFL premium/free plays for 67 percent, beating the NFL for the 27th time in 30 years. I went 4-1 on my Saturday college football plays pushing my CFB record to 35-22 for 61 percent. I am 12-4-1 on my NHL premium/free plays this season and 28-12 on my last 40 NBA premium/free plays going back to last season. If you’re interested in my sports selections please email me at, or message me via Twitter. Thanks and best of luck!


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