Giants minus $1.28 at Pirates
The Giants have been much better at home going 14-4 compared to 9-10 on the road. But this is a low lay price to fade the Pirates against a superior foe.
Pittsburgh is 4-11 in its last 15 games and 2-7 during its past nine home contests.
San Francisco is 38-22 versus sub .500 foes during the past two seasons, including winning 28 of the past 40 times.
The pitching matchup is Johnny Cueto versus southpaw Tyler Anderson. My preference is Cueto.
The Padres roughed up Cueto in his last start getting to him for five runs in three innings this past Sunday. Cueto may have been rusty coming off the Injured List. His previous start was back on April 14. Before he went on IL, Cueto had permitted just one earned in his prior two starts covering 14 1/3 innings with an 11-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. This was at home against the Rockies and Reds, who are the No. 2 scoring team in the majors.
Cueto has a dominant history versus the Pirates with a 21-4 record and 2.13 ERA in 31 career starts. He faces a weak-hitting Pittsburgh lineup that is 29th in runs averaging 3.3 a game. The Pirates also rank among the bottom in many metric-type categories, including OPS and hard-hit rate.
Anderson has been decent going 3-3 with a 3.05 ERA. This is well above his past ERA’s. Anderson’s ERA’s the previous four seasons were never lower than 4.37. The Giants know him well since he pitched for San Francisco last year. The Giants are 8-4 against lefty starters this season and 22-14 the past two seasons.
Anderson held the Cubs to only two earned runs in eight innings six days ago in his last start. He also threw a season-high 102 pitches. I’m expecting there is going to be regression with Anderson. That could very well happen here.
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