Stephen Nover Free Tuesday MLB Play

On June 4, 2019, in Free Picks, MLB, by Stephen

By Stephen Nover

Nationals minus 1 1/2 runs minus $1.25 (run line) hosting White Sox

It has taken two months, but the Nationals are finally rounding into form winning seven of their last nine games. A key for the Nationals is a return to health of a number of key batters.

The danger with backing the Nationals – who are averaging 6.5 runs during their last nine games – is their horrible middle and setup relief pitching and Dave Martinez, who I regard as the worst manager in the majors.

Those negatives should be overcome by the Nationals hosting the White Sox and going with Stephen Strasburg. I can’t lay the asking price, so I’ll take a shot on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs at greatly reduced juice.

The White Sox just concluded a 6-1 homestand. Prior to that, though, they were outscored 26-5 by the Twins in their last three road games. The White Sox’s last nine defeats have all been by more than one run. Chicago is 6-21 in its last 27 interleague road games.

The White Sox are going with Reynaldo Lopez, who is pitching against his former team. The flip side to Lopez’s obvious extra motivation is the Nationals know him while the current White Sox are unfamiliar with Strasburg. Lopez is 3-5 with a 6.20 ERA. He has been at his worst on the road where his ERA is 7.78. The White Sox have lost in his last five road starts.

Lopez is in bad current form, too, allowing 13 earned runs in his last two starts spanning 9 1/3 innings. By contrast, Strasburg has a 2.05 ERA in his last three starts.

Strasburg has allowed two earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts. He is an elite pitcher especially when pitching at Nationals Park. Washington is 29-10 (74 percent) in Strasburg’s last 39 home starts versus sub .500 teams.

(My Tuesday ticket is headed by my Baseball Total of the Week. I am 21-8-2 on my last 31 premium/free play baseball over/unders after cashing a totals winner on the Under in the Dodgers-Diamondbacks game Monday. If you are interested in my sports service please email me at, or message me via Twitter. Best of luck!)


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