Dolphins-Bengals Free Sunday Play

On October 7, 2018, in Free Picks, NFL, by Stephen

By Stephen Nover

Dolphins at Bengals Under 48 1/2

Miami doesn’t feature any exceptional skill position players. It’s a reason why the Dolphins rank 30th in total yards and 26th in scoring averaging 20.5 points a game. Things aren’t going to get better either for the Dolphins because their offensive line is down two important starters, guard Josh Sitton and center Daniel Kilgore. Neither player has been adequately replaced. Miami is averaging 13.5 points in its two road games this season.

Cincinnati has a solid defense that is going to be better because star linebacker Vontaze Burfict returns from a four-game suspension. Burfict is a head-hunter and one of the dirtiest players in the league, but the Bengals surrender nearly five fewer points per game when he plays.

We have a fairly high total here, though, because the Bengals are fourth in the NFL in scoring at 31.4 points a game. Cincinnati’s offense certainly is improved from last season. Andy Dalton is playing well, too. But I’m not ready to confuse the Bengals with the Rams or Chiefs. Aside from A.J. Green, the Bengals don’t have explosive players.

The Bengals are right in the middle as far as offensive yards ranking 16th. Their scoring is skewed by having had games against the Colts and Falcons after Atlanta lost its two star safeties and best linebacker. Joe Mixon returns from a knee injury. I doubt Mixon plays the entire game having just undergone arthroscopic knee surgery barely three weeks ago. You wonder if he’s 100 percent.

Dalton still throws plenty of interceptions. He’s been picked off six times in four games. Dalton didn’t have weapons last year so he was terrible. He’s better this season because his skill position players have improved. This past week, however, the Bengals lost three of Dalton’s weapons – reliable backup running back Giovani Bernard, All-Pro tight end Tyler Eifert and deep threat John Ross. Dalton is only as good as his supporting cast.

There’s also a weather element in this game – and it’s not what you might think. Temperatures are supposed to be in the mid-80s. This is in Cincinnati not Miami. If that forecast is accurate it would mark the third-warmest home game in Bengals history.

(Editor’s note: Stephen Nover is one of the top football ‘cappers in North America. Stephen has turned in a winning NFL record in 22 of the last 24 years and is 1-0 this week with a Thursday winner on the Patriots. Stephen also went 5-1 on his college football premium and free plays Saturday. If you’re interested in his sports service please email or message him.)


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