Oklahoma-Texas Free Saturday Play

On October 6, 2018, in Free Picks, NCAAF, by Stephen

By Stephen Nover

Texas plus 7 vs. Oklahoma

It may be the best angle in college football. The angle is betting on a Tom Herman-coached team whenever they are an underdog. That’s the case here with Herman’s Texas Longhorns taking on Oklahoma.

Just how strong is this angle? It starts in 2015 when Herman became the head coach of Houston. He coached the Cougars for two seasons. Houston was an underdog five times during this span – and won all five games straight-up.

This is Herman’s second season with the Longhorns. Texas is 6-1 ATS as a ‘dog under Herman. If you want to go back more, you’ll find Ohio State was 6-0 ATS as a ‘dog when Herman was its offensive coordinator and Iowa State was 5-0 ATS taking points when Herman was an assistant coach for the Cyclones. That adds up to a 22-1 ATS mark for a mind-boggling 96 percent when taking points with a Herman-coached team!

I couldn’t recommend a play just based on a great angle, though. But I do believe the Longhorns have accumulated enough talent that they are now live to upset the Sooners straight-up. Even with Oklahoma owning a talent edge, the Longhorns have kept this series close staying within seven points during the past four meetings. The Sooners needed a 59-yard touchdown pass from Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield with less than seven minutes left to get past Texas last season, 29-24.

So far Kyler Murray has done a nice job replacing Mayfield. But who have the Sooners played? The answer is Florida Atlantic, UCLA, Iowa State, Baylor and Army. Those teams have a combined 9-14 record. Texas’ defense ranks in the top 32 in fewest points per game and fewest yards. The Longhorns’ offense is coming around. It will be the best offense Oklahoma has played. This is a game where Oklahoma is going to miss Rodney Anderson, who would have been one of the best running backs in the Big 12 but is out for the season with a knee injury.

Maybe it’s a leap of faith to believe the Longhorns are so close now to the Sooners in athletes and talent. I think they are, though, and I’ll take a touchdown to back that up especially with the monster Herman underdog angle at work.

(Editor’s note: Stephen Nover is a documented 18-8 on his Saturday college football premium and free plays since September. If you’re interested in Stephen’s sports service, please email or message him.)


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