Stephen Nover Free Saturday CFB Play

On October 2, 2017, in Free Picks, NCAAF, by Stephen

Fresno State minus 16 at San Jose State

San Jose State is an auto-fade for me. The Spartans are a shot team whose first-year coach, Brent Brennan, seems overmatched.

The Spartans are 0-4 SU and ATS the past four weeks losing 56-0 to Texas, 54-16 to Utah, 61-10 to Utah State at home and 41-13 to UNLV this past Saturday. The Spartans have allowed more than 300 yards – in the first half in three of their six games. The Spartans trailed UNLV 35-13 at halftime. The Rebels let up in the second half yet still won by 28 points.

Just two weeks ago, the Spartans were blasted by Utah State as two-point home ‘dogs. This was San Jose State’s Mountain West Conference opener. Utah State, which lost to Wisconsin and Wake Forest by a combined 85 points, outgained the Spartans by 427 yards and had 20 more first downs.

So in the last two weeks, San Jose State has lost to the spread by a combined 61 points. Here are San Jose State’s gory season numbers: The Spartans rank 122nd in scoring averaging 15.8 per game. They rate 124th out of 129 Division I schools in yards allowed and 126th in points given up at 44.5. Counting just their last four games, the Spartans are putting up only 9.7 points a game and 264.5 yards. Against the Rebels this past Saturday, the Spartans committed three turnovers, had seven penalties and a blocked punt.

It’s safe to state that San Jose State is beyond brutal. The oddsmaker does recognize this making Fresno State more than a two-touchdown road favorite. Are the Bulldogs strong enough to cover this number even playing such a weak opponent?

My belief is yes. The Bulldogs defeated Nevada, another bad team, 42-21 this past Saturday. That was at home. However, the Bulldogs won by 21 despite not playing especially well turning the ball over a season-high three times and committing eight penalties, their most for the year. Fresno State should play better here especially bolstered by posting its first Mountain West win since 2015.

Marcus McMaryion made his first college start and looked like former Fresno State quarterback Derek Carr. McMaryion completed his first 12 passes, finishing with a 167.07 quarterback rating.

Mostly, though, this handicap is a fade on San Jose State. I’m going to play against the Spartans until they show a pulse, which might not happen again this season.


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