Stephen Nover Free Sunday NFL Play

On October 1, 2017, in Free Picks, NFL, by Stephen

Giants at Buccaneers Over 44 1/2

Jameis Winston has scary receiving weapons in Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson. The Buccaneers don’t get their best running back, Doug Martin, back until next week when his suspension is lifted. But the Giants rank last in run defense giving up 153.3 yards on the ground per game. The Giants defense has been on the field far more than their offense. New York has lost the time of possession battle in all three of their games by wide margins. This is a late afternoon game in south Florida heat and humidity. The Giants defense could wilt away in the second half.

So I’m confident the Buccaneers will get their share of points. But how about the Giants? Can they hold up their part on the offensive end? Evidence and circumstances say yes – in a big way.

The Giants finally – after 11 quarters – got their passing attack humming putting up 24 points on the Eagles in the fourth quarter last Sunday. Eli Manning threw for 366 yards and three touchdowns against Philadelphia. The Giants have all their starters healthy now on their offensive line and Manning has gotten in sync with his wide receivers. A healthy Odell Beckham Jr. can take his place among the three best wideouts in the NFL.

Manning is 5-0 lifetime versus Tampa Bay. He’s had some huge games against the Bucs. The Buccaneers haven’t sacked Manning the past three times they’ve faced him and have only one sack this season in 78 pass attempts.

Journeyman Case Keenum had the best game of his five-year career playing the Buccaneers last week. Keenum threw for 369 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. His passer rating was 142.1. Going into that game, Keenum’s career quarterback rating was below 80.

A big reason for Keenum’s explosion was Tampa Bay’s cluster injury problem on defense. The Buccaneers could get some of their walking wounded back, but are going to be without their two best linebackers, Kown Alexander and Lavonte David, and probably missing safety TJ Ward, too. Rookie linebacker Kendell Beckwith is forced to call the Bucs’ defensive signals with Alexander and David out. It’s an added bonus for the Giants if the Buccaneers are minus their two best defensive linemen, Gerald McCoy (ankle) and Chris Baker (flu).


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