Stephen Nover Free Sunday Play

On August 14, 2016, in Free Picks, MLB, by Stephen

Diamondbacks plus $1.36 at Red Sox

Man I hate the Arizona Diamondbacks this season. They are the biggest underachievers in the National League if not all of baseball.

But if there is one spot to play the Diamondbacks this is it where they are taking a nice price with Zack Greinke.

I understand the Red Sox are the superior team, home and have their own new ace going, Rick Porcello.

Here, though, is what we have going with Greinke:

Greinke has won 83 percent of his starts the past two years going 30-6. He has a 2.14 road ERA this season. The Diamondbacks aren’t so miserable away from Chase Field. They are .500 on the road and have won each of Greinke’s past eight road starts.

Greinke has been an underdog four times this season. Arizona has won on each occasion.

Greinke has gotten better this year after a slow start. He has a 2.47 ERA in his last 10 starts. This is his second start since coming off the DL after being sidelined with an oblique strain. He gave the Diamondbacks a quality start and an underdog victory in his last start beating the Mets this past Tuesday. That was the right-hander’s ninth consecutive win. Afterward, Greinke said everything was fine and he felt 100 percent.

Boston has lost 11 of the past 14 times going against a righty. The Red Sox also are 2-7 in their last nine home games versus a righty.

Greinke has pitched at Fenway Park holding a 1.17 ERA there in two appearances. He owns a 2.83 career ERA versus Boston in seven appearances, including six starts.

Porcello is having a magnificent season. He’s not Greinke, though. Porcello has a 3.40 ERA on the season and a 5.11 career ERA in two starts against Arizona with the last coming two years ago. Porcello has a 4.11 career interleague ERA in 31 appearances, including 29 starts. He has made three straight strong starts. I’m not sold he can continue to exceed his past norms by coming through with a fourth consecutive outstanding game.

Boston is the No. 1 offensive team. Yet, the Red Sox have hit just 12 more homers than the Diamondbacks, who aren’t lacking for offensive stars with Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, Jean Segura and Yasmany Tomas. Lamb and Tomas are underrated sluggers. They’ve combined for 45 homers this year.

The Diamondbacks do focus harder when Greinke is on the mound. They are trying to avoid a sweep. So there should be some pride on the line.

Boston has lost the past seven times when playing the final game of a three-game series. The Red Sox open an 11-game road trip following this matchup starting with a single game at Cleveland on Monday. That is followed by two key games against Baltimore.Those are much more important games for Boston than this one.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *