Free MLB Pick for Thursday October 3

On October 3, 2013, in Free Picks, MLB, by Stephen

Braves plus $1.35 hosting Dodgers

I’m not going to pass up this price on the Braves, who had the best home record in baseball at 56-25, scored more runs than the Dodgers and have the best closer in baseball, Craig Kimbrel.

So why are the Dodgers such a heavy road favorite? Clayton Kershaw that’s why. The guy’s a monster. He’s probably the best pitcher in baseball. Kershaw has a road ERA of 2.14, which is tremendous but is still more than his 1.56 home ERA.

But as good as Kershaw is, he wasn’t hotter down the stretch than Atlanta starter Kris Medlen, who was named NL Pitcher of the Month for September going 4-0 with a 1.00 ERA in five September starts. He has not surrendered a run during his last 22 innings.

Medlen is 3-0 career-wise versus the Dodgers with a 1.23 ERA in eight appearances.

Medlen has been pitching well the entire second half of the season compiling a 9-3 mark with a 2.38 ERA following the All-Star break. The Braves have won 74 percent of Medlen’s last 55 starts.

The Dodgers have lost five of their last seven in Atlanta and will be without Matt Kemp. Andre Ethier is reduced to being just a pinch-hitter due to an ankle injury.

Brian Wilson and Kenley Jansen have been terrific for the Dodgers in the eighth and ninth innings. But the Braves had two setup men with ERA’s under 2.00 while compiling the league’s lowest bullpen ERA. Kimbrel has been the best closer for the last two years. He saved 50 of 54 games this year striking out 98 in 67 innings.

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