Nover’s View: NBA Free Friday Play

On March 15, 2024, in Free Picks, NBA, by Stephen

Spurs plus 10 1/2 vs Nuggets (in Austin, Texas)

The defending world champion Nuggets have been the hottest team since the All-Star break. They’ve won 10 of their last 11 games to move into the top spot in the Western Conference. San Antonio has the worst record in the West at 14-52.

So why step in against Denver besides getting a boatload of points?

Situation and the Spurs being below-the-radar from a point spread perspective. That’s why.

Let’s start with the spot.

Denver began its four-game road trip with an impressive beatdown of the Heat two days ago. Following this game, the Nuggets play the Mavericks Sunday on national television (ABC). Denver concludes its road swing with a Tuesday game against the Timberwolves. This is the Nuggets’ least important game of their current trip. It’s a rest stop. So I doubt the Nuggets are too motivated and excited for this matchup.

It takes two to make a successful handicap. The Spurs can hold up their end of the bargain. They have covered eight of their last 11 games, defeating the Warriors, Pacers and Thunder straight-up during this span. San Antonio should have upset the Kings straight-up, too, in Sacramento. The Spurs lost that game by two points after blowing a late lead.

During these last 11 games, the Spurs were double-digit underdogs six times. They covered each of those six games.

Note this game is being played in Austin, Texas. That’s a randomness factor and randomness is good when backing a large underdog. It’s a chance for the Spurs base in Austin to see Victor Wembanyama first-hand. So there should be crowd motivation.

(Editor’s note: Stephen Nover is one of the hottest NBA handicappers in North America going 52-33 on his last 85 premium NBA plays, including winning his past five. Stephen also is having a winning college basketball season and NHL season. If you are interested in his sports service, please email him at, or message him via X.)


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