Nover’s View: Saints-Broncos Free Sunday Play

On November 29, 2020, in Free Picks, NFL, by Stephen

By Stephen Nover

Saints at Broncos Over 36  

OK, so the Broncos don’t have a quarterback. It’s not unique. The Bears haven’t had one and now the Bengals don’t.

The oddsmaker has acted accordingly dropping the total all the way down to 36. That’s low enough for me to make a pizza bet on the Over.

The Saints may be able to reach this total just by themselves. New Orleans is the No. 5 scoring team in the league averaging nearly 30 points per game. The Saints have scored at least 24 points every game. The Broncos are below average defensively surrendering 26.7 points per game. If this game was to get out of hand, it’s not inconceivable Denver’s defense could quit.

Taysom Hill has weapons with Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Hill doesn’t have the accuracy of Drew Brees, but he provides a running option the Saints don’t get from their other quarterbacks. Hill also should be more comfortable now that he has made an NFL start.

Welcome Kendall Hinton. What do we have with him? Who knows? He’s a practice squad wide receiver who played QB for parts of four seasons at Wake Forest completing 133 of 251 passes for 53 percent with 8 TD’s and 7 interceptions.

The Broncos have speed on the flanks with Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler. Noah Fant is an emerging tight end star. Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay are an above average running back tandem. The Broncos also have a good kicker, Brandon McManus. He gets to kick in elevated conditions. There are no weather problems either with clear skies, no wind and temperatures in the high 30’s.

I’d rather try to go Over this low total in today’s NFL with rules heavily skewed toward offense than try to make an Over work with a mid-40’s total if Brett Rypien, or even recently resurrected from the junkyard Blake Bortles, were behind center.

(I have beaten the NFL 23 of the last 26 years and have four other NFL selections going today. I have won 62 percent of my college basketball plays the past two plus years and have one CBB play going today. If you’re interested in my sports service please email me at, or message me via Twitter. Thanks and no bad beats!) 


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