Browns minus 3 minus $1.20 hosting Texans
You can’t fully examine this matchup without first considering the weather. The temperature is going to be fine – mid 50’s. But heavy winds in the 28-30 mph range are forecast. That really hurts the Texans. The Browns are ground-oriented. The Texans have to throw downfield to win.
The weather is just one of many pluses for the Browns. They are expected to get back running back Nick Chubb, guard Wyatt Teller and tight end Austin Hooper. Chubb and Teller are among the best at their respective positions. Teller is one of the league’s more unsung guards. The Browns didn’t score a rushing TD during the three games Teller missed. Houston ranks last in run defense and gives up the second-most yards per carry at 5.1.
The Texans have a league-low five takeaways and rank 29th in scoring defense allowing 30.3 points a game.
Houston gave up 31 points to the Vikings in an eight-point home loss. This is telling because the Browns are coached by Kevin Stefanski, who was the quarterback coach and later offensive coordinator for the Vikings before coming to the Browns this season. Stefanski is big on using the run to set up effective play-action passes. Kirk Cousins, Stefanski’s former QB, was 7-of-8 for 134 yards and a TD off play-action against the Texans.
While the 5-3 Browns are energized off their bye and trying to end a long playoff drought, the Texans are demoralized and in a toxic atmosphere behind clueless ownership and management. Houston is 2-6 and has the second-worst spread mark in the NFL at 1-7. Many of their coaches are looking to bail.
Cleveland hasn’t proven trustworthy in the past. Usually I’d rather take than lay with the Browns. But the timing, matchup, weather conditions and short spread make the Browns worth backing here especially if you buy down from 3 1/2 if unable to find minus 3.
I am 2-0 this week on my NFL plays with victories on the Jets Monday and Colts on Thursday going for my 24th winning NFL season in 27 years. All plays come with my in-depth analysis. If you are interested in my sports service please email me at scriber26@gmail.com, or message me via Twitter.
