By Stephen Nover
Illinois plus 15 1/2 at Iowa
Maybe it’s because Iowa beat them, 63-0, last year. Maybe it’s because their offense ranks just 112th in yards gained. Maybe it’s because Lovie Smith is such a retread, unappealing coach.
Whatever the reasons, the Illini get disrespected in the marketplace. That’s the case again this week with Iowa pushed up to being more than a two-touchdown favorite against Illinois.
Enough is enough. Illinois is worthy of respect. The Illini went into their bye last week riding a four-game win streak, including upsetting Wisconsin and posting road victories against Purdue and Michigan State. They are 5-1 ATS as an underdog and have covered in their past five Big Ten games.
Iowa doesn’t have enough offense to lay this high of a number against this opponent. The Hawkeyes are averaging 17.5 points in their last six games. I’m not impressed with their skill position talent. The last time Iowa reached 400 yards of offense was back in September.
Typical of Smith, the Illini have a bend-but-don’t break defense that knows how to produce turnovers forcing an average of three per game during their four-game win streak.
While Illinois was resting last week, Iowa was ending Minnesota’s unbeaten season. That was a huge win and effort from the Hawkeyes. Iowa has Nebraska on deck, which is far more of a rivalry series than this one. So the situational advantage goes to Illinois along with a value edge.
I am 108-71-2 (60%) the past two seasons on my last 181 premium/free college football plays. I have my Triple Star CFB Game of the Year heading my Saturday card, which also contains four other CFB premium plays in addition to this free selection.
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