Stephen Nover’s Free Saturday CFB Play

On August 30, 2019, in Free Picks, NCAAF, by Stephen

By Stephen Nover

Mississippi plus 5 at Memphis (Saturday)

Sometimes it isn’t necessarily talent, but lack of motivation that causes a team to regress.

Mississippi had competed in bowl games four straight years from 2012-2015. But the Rebels hadn’t been to a bowl game during the last three seasons. Now, Mississippi’s bowl suspension has been lifted. Ole Miss is bowl eligible again.

I see the Rebels bouncing back this year. Too much of this line is based on Mississippi’s poor performance last season. We are talking about an SEC team getting more than a field goal against an American Athletic Conference opponent. Memphis is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games versus SEC foes, including getting blasted by Missouri, 65-33, last season.

Mississippi coach Matt Luke has surrounded himself with former respected head coaches Rich Rodriguez and Mike MacIntyre to be his coordinators.

Memphis’ home field advantage is somewhat negated by playing at the Liberty Bowl. It’s just a little more than a one hour drive from Mississippi’s campus to Memphis.

The Rebels have a stud running back, Scottie Phillips. He’ll take the pressure off redhsirt freshman QB Matt Corral. Rodriguez prefers a more-run based offense. Memphis gave up 32 points a game last season. The Tigers are extremely vulnerable in the secondary with a track record of giving up huge passing plays so Corral will be able to take advantage especially off play-action. Corral completed 73 percent of his throws and averaged 10.9 yards per pass attempt in four appearances as a true freshman last year.

Memphis lost some firepower with Darrell Henderson and Tony Pollard going into the NFL. The Tigers still have RB Patrick Taylor Jr. and Brady White is one of the better QB’s in the AAC. You have to wonder, though, if Memphis’ offensive line can hold off an SEC defense?

Ole Miss’s defense was porous last season. It should be much improved with nine starters back, including nose tackle Benito Jones. He’s a key in MacIntyre switching the Rebles’ defense from a 4-3 to 3-4.

I enter Friday’s action going 40-18 on my premium/free plays this month. I am 66-35 on my last 101 college football premium/free plays, including 13-3 on my last 16 CFB plays after cashing a winner with the Under in the UCLA-Cincinnati Thursday matchup. All of my plays come with analysis. If you are interested in my sports service please email me at, or message me via Twitter.

As always, best of luck and no bad beats!


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