By Stephen Nover
Bucks at Cavaliers Over 218 1/2
It may interest you to know the Bucks are the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA averaging 118.1 points a game. Much of that is due to their roster composition, having superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo complemented by several underrated scorers and new coach Mike Budenholzer, who is a huge upgrade on Jason Kidd.
Lately, though, the Bucks have been in a shooting slump hitting just 41.4 percent of their shots from the floor during their last four games while averaging 101 points during this span. Milwaukee ranks sixth in the league in shooting percentage at 47.6. So a correction is due to occur.
I believe this is the spot and matchup where the Bucks have a breakout offensive game. They are due and the circumstances are right.
The Bucks suffered their most lopsided loss of the season this past Wednesday, falling 113-97 to the Pacers. Antetokounmpo was held to a season-low 12 points. The Pacers are the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA. They hold foes to 101.3 points per game and rank No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage at 44 percent.
Milwaukee can take its frustrations out on the lowly Cavaliers, who rank last in the NBA in defensive field goal percentage and just lost their top rebounder and inside defensive presence, Tristain Thompson. The Bucks have been a huge money-maker as an Over play in road games going above the total in 72 percent of their past 25 away matchups.
The Cavaliers and Bucks just met five days ago in Milwaukee. That final was Milwaukee 108, Cleveland 92. That’s just a total of 200 points. However, Antetokounmpo didn’t play and both teams combined to shoot only 40 percent from the field. Cleveland attempted only 15 free throws. The Bucks shot even fewer foul shots, just 11. Both teams average more than 20 free throw attempts per game.
There is a lot of Zig/Zag to the NBA. This one has that Zig/Zag feel to it where offense – not defense – is the dominant factor.
If you toss out that game, the Cavaliers are averaging 113 points in their last three games. The makeup of their squad has changed with Thompson sidelined by a foot injury and George Hill traded.
Collin Sexton is an underrated player. He’s averaging 21.4 points in his last five games. Hill’s departure has opened up more minutes for Jordan Clarkson and Rodney Hood, both of whom are more offensive-minded players and better for an Over than when Hill was logging minutes.
(Editor’s note: Stephen Nover is a documented 27-8 on his last 35 premium/free plays for 77 percent. Stephen has his NBA Underdog Game of the Month going today in addition to this free selection. If you are interested in his sports service please email him at scriber26@gmail.com or message him via Twitter.)
