Stephen Nover’s Free CFB Saturday Play

On November 24, 2018, in Free Picks, NCAAF, by Stephen

Arkansas State minus 11 at Texas State

By Stephen Nover

It has been another horrible season for Texas State. The Bobcats are 3-8. That gives them the grand total of 10 victories during the past four years.

The Bobcats fired head coach Everett Withers this past Sunday. Interim coach Chris Woods will coach the Bobcats final game of the season Saturday against Arkansas State, which is tied for first in the Sun Belt Conference’s West Division.

Arkansas State has momentum winning and covering its last three games all by 14 or more points. Two of those victories were against South Alabama (38-14) and UL Monroe (31-17). Texas State met both of those teams, too, and lost to South Alabama, 41-31, and was beaten by UL Monroe, 20-14.

The Bobcats have scored seven points in each of their last two games. This scoring drought has coincided with a season-ending injury to starting quarterback Willie Jones III. Tyler Vitt, a true freshman, replaced Jones. Vitt has thrown 10 interceptions, averaging an interception every 10 throws. Texas State ranks 121st in yards and 119th in points averaging 20.9 per game.

The Red Wolves have the most prolific passer in the Sun Belt, senior Justice Hansen. He leads the conference in passing yards and touchdowns with 25. No other Sun Belt quarterback has more than 16 touchdown throws. Keyed by Hansen, the Red Wolves lead the Sun Belt in total yards per game with 461.

Arkansas State is the far superior team with a monster edge in the passing game. The Red Wolves have the motivation. Texas State has an inexperienced freshman quarterback and an interim head coach.

Given these signifciant matchup and situational edges, Arkansas State should cover this point spread margin.


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