Handicapping who wins NFL MVP honors

On August 3, 2018, in NFL, by Stephen

By Stephen Nover

Kudos to sportsbook.com for putting out NFL player props. One of their props is odds on who will be this season’s NFL Most Valuable Player.

This really could come down to only a handful of players. Find the right one at the right price and you can score a nice profit.

So here is my attempt at trying to come up with the right candidates.

First off, forget every position except quarterback. A wide receiver has never won an MVP, which is a real injustice to Jerry Rice. A quarterback has been selected MVP in 10 of the last 11 years, including the last five. Only Adrian Peterson in 2012 kept this from being 11 consecutive years of a quarterback MVP.

There are two keys for a quarterback to earn MVP honors – a high number of touchdown passes and a lot of victories. Touchdown passes trump passing yards.

Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady are the two strongest candidates based on this criteria. However, their odds are too low to recommend. Rodgers is 5-1 while Brady is 6-1. It’s not worthy tying up money for so long at those short odds.

I would rather take a shot on one or two of these quarterbacks: Drew Brees at 14-1, Cam Newton at 25-1, Kirk Cousins at 30-1 and Jared Goff at 50-1.

The Saints are Super Bowl or bust this season. Brees should be throwing more than last season with Mark Ingram suspended for the first four games. Alvin Kamara is a special back, but the Saints don’t wan’t to wear him down.

Newton captured the MVP in 2015. He hasn’t been able to duplicate that success during the past two season. Newton, though, easily could return to his 2015 form with added receiving weapons, a healthy Greg Olsen and having Norv Turner as his new offensive coordinator. I’ve always thought of Turner as the classic example of a bad head coach, but outstanding coordinator. Newton didn’t finish in the top-five in passing yards during his MVP 2015 season.

Cousins has everything to succeed in a big way with the Vikings, including outstanding skill position weapons, a top-five red zone tight end in Kyle Rudolph and the NFC’s top defense.

Goff made huge strides in his second season last year. It’s not inconceivable that he could keep growing and getting better under quarterback guru Sean McVay. The Rams have a cakewalk to their division. They have plenty of offense for both Goff and Todd Gurley to post monster numbers.

(Editor’s note: Stephen Nover is 3-0 the past three days on his baseball plays after winning with the Giants at plus $1.53 against the Diamondbacks Thursday. Stephen has a pair of baseball plays today. If you are interested in his sports service please email him at scriber26@gmail.com.)


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