No question the New England Patriots are the best team in football. The Patriots won the Super Bowl and look even stronger this season.
But that doesn’t mean they will win 13 games. I envision them winning less. So I like the Patriots to go Under 12 1/2 victories on their regular-season over/under win total.
Only once in the last five seasons have the Patriots finished with more than 12 regular season wins.
There are a number of factors working against New England to achieve 13 victories or more.
This is the NFL after all. Parity, parity, parity. As bad as the AFC East Division is, the Patriots still have managed to lose at least two division games in all but one of the past four seasons. The Dolphins and Bills treat the Patriots as their games of the year. The Jets have become far worse, but they meet the Patriots in Week 17 when New England might be sitting starters if its playoff seeding has been determined.
Tom Brady. The guy defies time. But he is 40! Bill Belichick has a far-sighted approach. His goal is to peak in January and win the Super Bowl. If he has to sacrifice a game during October or November by holding out banged-up players – including Brady – he will. This matters when the Patriots can’t lose more than three games. Keep in mind, too, the Patriots have only home matchup during a six-game stretch from Week 10 through Week 15.
True, the Patriots only lost two games last season. But their schedule is far more difficult this year.
New England has non-division road games against the Saints, Buccaneers, Broncos, Raiders in Mexico City and Steelers. All of those teams have Over/Under regular-season win totals above eight. The away matchup against the Steelers will be the Patriots’ third straight road game and follows division games against the Bills and Dolphins.
At home, the Patriots draw the Chiefs, Texans, Panthers, Falcons and Chargers as their non-division foes. All of those teams except the Chargers are lined to be better than .500.
