Stephen Nover’s Free Fourth of July Play

On July 4, 2017, in Free Picks, MLB, by Stephen

Mets plus $1.50 at Nationals

The Fourth of July baseball fireworks start early today beginning with this day game.

The Mets are in desperation mode trailing the Nationals by 10 1/2 games in the NL East following a heart-breaking 3-2 loss to Washington on Monday night.

This is a far more important game for the Mets than it is for the Nationals. Seth Lugo is one of the most underrated pitchers in the National League and at this plus price I’m involved with the Mets. New York has won seven of its last 10 games. The Mets also are 10-1 in Lugo’s last 11 starts.

Lugo has looked good since returning from the DL on June 11. He’s made four starts, three of which were quality outings. His victories all have been on the road where his ERA is 3.38. His day time ERA is 2.63.

Washington starter Joe Ross finally has started to pitch better. But do you trust Ross? I certainly don’t. He’s given up five or more earned runs in half of his past 10 starts.

Then there are the bullpens. The Mets’ relievers are below average. However, the Nationals have the worst bullpen in the majors with an ERA above 5.00. Addison Reed has done a decent job closing for the Mets and didn’t pitch Monday. So he should be available. The Nationals lack a closer. They’ve blown 14 saves.

I’m on the Mets knowing Yoenis Cespedes and Curtis Granderson aren’t likely to be in the starting lineup. Cespedes felt a cramp in his right hamstring on the final play of Monday’s game. Terry Collins probably isn’t going to chance starting him. Granderson has been out with a hip injury although he did hit a pinch homer last night.

The Nationals, though, are likely to rest several of their key hitters. Washington played in the Sunday night game two days ago and this is a very early start time. Keep in mind, the Nationals are without Trea Turner. Minus the injured Turner, the Nationals’ run game takes a severe hit. Turner has seven more steals than the entire Nationals team combined.


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