Stephen Nover Free Saturday MLB Play

On July 1, 2017, in Free Picks, MLB, by Stephen

Phillies plus $1.54 at Mets

Zack Wheeler remains a promising pitcher despite losing two years recovering from Tommy John surgery. But he’s not in good form and the Phillies have played better on the road lately. So this line is too high. I believe the Phillies represent excellent value.

Philadelphia is 3-4 during its current road trip with two of those losses coming by one run. The Phillies scored 13 runs in sweeping two games at Seattle before running into a hot Jacob deGrom in a 2-1 loss to the Mets last night. deGrom may be the hottest pitcher in baseball going 4-0 with a 0.84 ERA and 31 strikeouts in his last four starts.

The Phillies’ five five batters – Odubel Herrera, Freddy Galvis, Aaron Altherr, Tommy Joseph and Maikel Franco – were a combined 0-for-19 Friday night. Expect those players to do much better against Wheeler, who is coming off the DL after being sidelined with biceps tendinitis.

Wheeler had been shelled for 15 runs during his previous two starts spanning only 3 2/3 innings. Wheeler has a home ERA of 5.91 this season and 4.81 at Citi Field during his career. The Mets are 2-7 in Wheeler’s last nine starts at Citi Field. Mets closer Addison Reed carries a fatigue rating having pitched an inning each of the last two days.

Jeremy Hellickson doesn’t have Wheeler’s ceiling, but usually is a dependable six-inning pitcher. The 30-year-old Hellickson’s current form is much better than Wheeler’s. Hellickson has given up just two runs and nine hits during his last two starts spanning 13 innings. Philadelphia has won six of its last seven division games in which Hellickson has started


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