This year’s NFL draft is especially strong at cornerback, safety and pass rushers. So what does that mean when it comes to betting NFL props?
It signifies to me some offensive players could get picked in the first round when they are borderline first/second-rounders with teams believing they can still get first-round quality defensive backs and pass rushers in the second round.
So I like Over 3 1/2 quarterbacks (currently plus $1.55), Over 2 1/2 running backs (currently minus $3.25) and Over 2 1/2 wide receivers (currently minus $2.60) in the first round. Note these props and prices are taken from the Internet book Betonline.
There are going to be at least three running backs taken in Round 1. But if you want to avoid the high juice on the Over 2 1/2 running back prop, the Westgate has minus $1.10 on over/under 3 1/2 running backs selected in the first round.
LSU running back Leonard Fournette could be the second overall pick. Christian McCaffrey of Stanford and Dalvin Cook of Florida State should go within the top 20. The key to winning this prop is if Oklahoma’s Joe Mixon goes in the first round. Based on talent and versatility, Mixon is either the first or second-best running back in the draft. I rate him the best running back.
However, many believe Mixon won’t go in the first round because he broke a female’s jaw three years ago in an incident that was captured on video. Mixon isn’t a serial bad character like the late Lawrence Phillips. He paid the price for his huge mistake. Randy Moss carried huge baggage, too, when he was in the draft. He fell way down because of it, but still was taken in the first round. I think a team will remember that and grab Mixon in the first round. As a Packers fan, I’m hoping Green Bay makes that choice at No. 29 if Mixon still is around.
Obviously I’m very strong on the Joe Mixon to be taken within the first 46 1/2 picks prop offered at Betonline. That’s currently priced at minus $1.30.
I’m willing to take a nice plus price on Over 3 1/2 quarterbacks being taken in the first round. Betonline currently has plus $2.60 on exactly four quarterbacks going in the first round. That’s another way to get involved with this prop.
It’s not sticking my neck out to predict Mitch Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson are all going in the first round. What needs to happen for this prop to cash is for Notre Dame’s DeShone Kizer to also go in Round 1.
Kizer has the athleticism, talent and intelligence to be a first-round pick. He’s helped, too, by the fact that first-round draft choices automatically receive five-year contracts. That gives teams extra time to develop a quarterback. Kizer has flaws so a team would have to be patient with him. He could prove attractive to a winning team picking near the end of the draft that needs to start developing their future starting quarterback such as the Chiefs at No. 27, Pittsburgh at No. 30 and New Orleans at No. 32.
If there’s an early run on quarterbacks with Trubisky, Mahomes and Watons going earlier than expected, some team could trade back into the first round in order to get Kizer since there’s a big drop after him.
So there are a lot of scenarios of Kizer going in the first round to cash that plus money prop.
