Stephen Nover Free Wednesday Play

On May 25, 2016, in Free Picks, MLB, by Stephen

Marlins plus $1.55 at Rays

I find this to be an excellent spot to take a nice price in a game that should be very close.

The Marlins have a better record than Tampa Bay. The Marlins also are 9-3 the past 12 times when taking on a below .500 opponent.

This isn’t a good situation for the Rays. It’s their first home game in 10 days. Tampa Bay is 4-10 when playing its first home game following a road trip of seven or more days.

Tampa Bay is down two of its better and more underrated players as both Logan Forsythe and Kevin Kiermaier are out with injuries. In addition, the Rays are likely to not have closer Alex Colome. He had a two-inning save last night and also pitched on Monday. If Colome does come in, he’ll carry a high fatigue rating.

That gives the Marlins a solid bullpen edge. Their closer, A.J. Ramos, is a perfect 14-for-14 in save opportunities. David Phelps has been one of the best setup men this season with a 1.38 ERA.

It’s a plus if Christian Yelich returns to Miami’s lineup today. He’s been day-to-day with a sore back. Streaky Giancarlo Stanton is showing signs of ending his slump. He homered last night.

The starting pitching matchup is southpaw Justin Nicolino versus Matt Andriese, who had a 4.11 ERA in 65 2/3 inning last season. That was his first year in the big leagues. The 26-year-old Andriese was recalled from Triple A this month. He’ll be making his fourth start. The line is so high because the oddsmaker is impressed that Andriese is 3-0 so far.

I’m not as impressed. Andriese was lucky to win his last start giving up four runs on five hits in 5 1/3 innings during a 7-5 road victory against the Tigers this past Friday. I think he’s fade material as his starts begin to accumulate. The Marlins had a brief look at him last season when he pitched against them in relief.

Nicolino isn’t a great prospect either. He’s had two strong performances in five starts this season. His edge is being a lefty. The Rays are 4-12 during their last 16 interleague games against a southpaw. The Marlins are 4-1, too, when Nicolino has gone against a sub .500 foe.


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