Chattanooga vs. Indiana Free Pick

On March 17, 2016, in Free Picks, NCAAB, by Stephen

Chattanooga plus 12 vs. Indiana (NCAA Tournament)

This is one of those No. 5 versus No. 12 seed games that have produced at least one upset in the NCAA Tournament every year except one since 2007.

Getting a little more esoteric, a 12th seed has covered 85 percent of the time during the last seven year when off a victory and getting three or more points when the No. 5 seed is off a defeat.That pattern fits here with 29-win Chattanooga capturing the Southern Conference Tournament while Indiana was upset by Michigan as a 7 1/2-point favorite in its opening round Big Ten Tournament game.

Take the Hooisers out of Assembly Hall and all you find is an 8-7 record.

Talent-wise, the Mocs can’t match Yogi Ferrell and maybe not even Troy Williams. But the Mocs are a veteran team that has a number of strong traits that make them a tough out here. They rebound well, press and play with defensive intensity under first-year head coach Matt McCall, a Billy Donovan protege, protect the ball and average 23.4 free throw attempts. That’s four more per game than Indiana averages.

The Mocs have covered six of the past seven times when going against opponents with a winning record. They were projected by Joe Lunardi to have been an 11th-seed or lower. So I believe this is a case of an underrated team meeting an overrated big name school that doesn’t have the road/neutral site record to be installed as such a heavy favorite.


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