Phillies-Marlins Free Play

On September 23, 2015, in Free Picks, MLB, by Stephen

Phillies plus $1.46 at Marlins

There are some high profile, excellent matchups going on as the baseball regular season winds down.

This game isn’t one of them. But it does provide nice value for the underdog in a matchup of bad versus bad.

Philadelphia has owned Miami beating the Marlins in eight of the past nine meetings, including winning last night as big underdogs. It was the Phillies’ fourth consecutive victory at Marlins Park.

The Phillies are in a better mental state, important this late in the season for non-contending teams auditioning players for next year.

Until yesterday, both teams had interim managers. That’s no longer the case with the Phillies. They named Pete Mackanin as their manager for 2016. The move was popular with the players. Philadelphia is 15 games below .500 under Mackanin compared to being 22 games under .500 when Ryne Sandberg was manager. It’s clear the Phillies have responded better to Mackanin than Sandberg.

Meanwhile it’s become evident that Marlins interim manager Dan Jennings won’t be the team’s manager next year. Marlins management already has started interviewing for the position, which is distracting to the players and undermines Jennings’ credibility. Miami is 17 games below .500 since Jennings took over.

Look I realize the game still mainly comes down to pitching. The oddsmaker, though, is giving Miami too much of an edge with David Buchanan facing the Marlins’ Adam Conley.

Buchanan is a young pitcher making his case to be part of Philadelphia’s starting rotation in 2016. He’s been terrible on the road for the most part. But Buchanan did show promise at times last season. He has experience with 32 big league starts.

Buchanan held the Nationals, a far better offensive team than the Marlins, to two runs in six innings during his last start. He is 1-0 with a 2.70 ERA in three lifetime games against the Marlins.

Miami averages 3.7 runs per game. Only one team averages fewer. The Marlins have dropped four in a row.

The Marlins rank 29th in the majors averaging 3.7 runs per game. They are averaging 2.7 runs during their losing skid.

Miami is missing a number of its key players, including Giancarlo Stanton, Martin Prado and Adeiny Hechavarria.

Conley is pitching well with a 2.96 ERA during his last five starts. He’s a rookie, though, and the Phillies know him having faced him a month ago.

Bottom line is the Marlins are priced way too high here.


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