NFL Extra Point Rule Bad for Bettors

On May 21, 2015, in NFL, by Stephen

Rule changes may help a sport, but rarely do they aid bettors. That’s the case again with the NFL’s decision to move extra point kick attempts back 13 yards making a 15-yarder become around a 33-yarder.

It may not seem much on the surface since the percentage of field goals made from 33 yards was better than 96 percent last year. But it’s a big enough change to lessen the impact of the almighty number 3 and makes 9 less of a dead number.

Mess with the 99 percent extra point – like the owners have voted to do – and you diminish key numbers. This puts more randomness into play. It hurts teaser players and makes it less valuable to buy certain numbers.

Let’s say a team scores late to take a nine-point lead. Why would that team risk trying an extra point, or attempt to score two points, when the defense is now live to score two points on the play? The answer is it wouldn’t. They wouldn’t chance it.

And while 33-yard kicks are nearly a sure thing, too, farther ones aren’t. That could happen if the offense is penalized for holding, or some other violation, during the extra point try.

Maverick coaches like Chip Kelly also might be going for two points more than expected. Why else would Tim Tebow be residing on the Eagles roster?

The more randomness the harder to handicap.


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