Mississippi State minus 9 1/2 hosting Bowling Green

An overrated MAC team on the road for the first time in nearly a month facing an SEC school with a powerful track record in situations like this puts me on Mississippi State against Bowling Green.

Bowling Green is 5-1. Impressive right? Not so fast. The Falcons’ victories have come against Murray State, Tulsa, Kent State, Akron and UMass. Mississippi State just got done playing LSU. The Bulldogs were ahead of the Tigers entering the fourth quarter.

When the Falcons last traveled, back on Sept. 14, they were hammered by Indiana, 42-10. The Hoosiers, a middle of the road Big Ten School, put up more than 600 yards of offense while holding the Falcons without an offensive touchdown.

Under Dan Mullen, the Bulldogs have hammered non-conference foes at home. They’ve won by a combined 246 points in their last six non-conference games at home, an average victory margin of 41 points. This includes a 62-7 victory against Troy and a 51-7 win over Alcorn State this season.

The Bulldogs have covered 11 of their past 15 home contests. They are 10-1 ATS as home chalk.

Fifth-year senior Tyler Russell is back at quarterback after suffering a concussion in Mississippi State’s first game. His next touchdown throw will set a school record for most touchdown passes in a career. The Bulldogs also will use dual threat Dak Prescott at quarterback. He leads the team in rushing. Those two should have no problem operating against a vulnerable Bowling Green secondary that has only one interception

The Bulldogs can’t take a loss here as they try to earn a bowl bid. They have an easy SEC game on tap next week at home against Kentucky. So they should be fully focused. Look for the class difference to show up in an easy Mississippi State victory.

For my premium football picks, click here.


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *